During the latest United Nations climate conference, which just concluded in Katowice, Poland, some 190 countries reached agreement on next steps to move forward the landmark 2015 Paris climate agreement. After days of intense negotiation, countries agreed to a “rule book” for measuring their annual carbon emissions, including transparency guidelines that enable all countries to understand how emissions numbers and future commitments are calculated.
The Paris climate agreement calls for limiting the rise in global temperatures to no more than 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit). The framework essentially asks countries to make voluntary agreements to lower their emissions and uses global peer pressure to spur them to ratchet up their commitments every five years. The new system for measuring and communicating these reductions provides a platform for greater future commitments.
However, there were also some failures at the conference. According to The Guardian, disagreements over the future of carbon markets and “how countries can gain credits for their efforts to cut emissions and their carbon sinks, such as forests” were punted down the road. Brazil was seen as a spoiler on this effort, because their new leadership demanded “wording that critics said would allow for double counting of credits and undermine the integrity of the system.”
Brazil recently-elected Jair Bolsonaro, a right-wing leader who has promised to shut down Brazil’s environment ministry. He has come out against Brazil’s previous pledges to reserve 12 percent of the Amazon — a vitally-important rainforest that serves as the world’s lungs — for indigenous groups. He instead seeks to build highways through the forest, creating easier access for agri-businesses, and also build more dams. Bolsonaro has called the global scientific consensus on climate change “dogma” that ignores “evidence,” using language similar to that of US President Donal Trump, who has called global warming a “hoax” or “con-job.” Bolsonaro has also pulled out of hosting the next UN climate summit, all but erasing the moral leadership on climate change just exhibited in the Rio Olympics in 2016. And Brazil’s new foreign minister Ernesto Araújo recently said climate change is a “Marxist plot” by the Chinese to increase their competitiveness at the expense of Western economies.
The UN conference in Poland created necessary governance infrastructure, but the hard work on ratcheting up emission reduction targets will happen at the critical 2020 meeting, some five years on from Paris. There, countries must commit to incredibly-ambitious goals if we are going to stave off the worst effects of a global temperature rise. Meanwhile, 2018 will likely prove to be the hottest year on record, and greenhouse gas emissions increased by nearly 3 percent this year due a resurgence in oil and gas use.
In other climate change news:
The World Bank announced it will invest some $200 billion in climate change mitigation and adaptation through 2025. The funds will go towards boosting renewable energy production, helping 100 cities adapt to climate change, creating early warning systems for climate impacts, and improving “landscape management” of 120 million hectares of forests in 50 countries.
Some 415 investors managing $32 trillion in assets called on nations at the UN climate change conference to “achieve the goals of the Paris climate agreement; accelerate private sector investment in the low-carbon transition; and continue to improve climate-related financial reporting.”
A new study published in Science Advances found that natural solutions, including rural and urban reforestation, better forest and grassland management, and wetland and peatland restoration, could reduce US annual carbon emissions by 21 percent, an amount approximately equal to taking all cars off the road.
Thirteen federal agencies in the U.S. released the Fourth National Climate Assessment, which states that climate change could reduce US economic output by 10 percent by the end of the century if emissions aren’t cut fast. In comparison with the third report published four years ago, the new assessment concludes that total impacts from wildfires, drought, flooding, extreme heat, sea level rise, and spreading tropical diseases will be more severe and widespread. According to an analysis of the 1,600-page report by The New York Times, the report puts actual numbers on the expected cost of the coming impacts: “$141 billion from heat-related deaths, $118 billion from sea level rise, and $32 billion from infrastructure damage by the end of the century.” Additional frightening conclusions: “American exports and supply chains could be disrupted, agricultural yields could fall to 1980s levels by mid century, and fire season could spread to the Southeast.”
The report, which was released by the Trump administration on Black Friday in an likely effort to bury the findings amid the holiday shopping spree, calls for putting a price on carbon, taxing companies that release carbon emissions, and increasing investment in clean energy technologies. The fourth national assessment also makes the case for increasing “proactive” adaptation measures at all scales — from the community to national levels — and incorporating equity, justice, cultural heritage, health, and national security considerations into these approaches. But while the number of adaptation projects has greatly increased since the launch of the third national assessment in 2014, “adaptation implementation is still not commonplace.”
Read the summary of the fourth national assessment and ASLA’s report: Smart Policies for a Changing Climate, which offers recommendations on mitigation, adaptation, and resilience.